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Our Latest Oscar Predictions

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Oscar Predictions 2024

The global film industry, though mostly Hollywood, is in the midst of an awards circuit. And the conclusion of the circuit, the 96th Academy Awards ceremony, is coming up in less than a month now, on March 12, 2024.

You can find quite a few trade magazines and web media publishing articles on Oscar predictions. “While bookmakers are known for sports betting, they are in fact, not providing odds just for sports.” A betting expert, Masa Sasajim, who runs betinjapan.com and is a big movie buff himself, says that some bookmakers offer predictive odds for the Academy Awards. 

Here in this article, we would like to take a look at Masa’s latest prediction for the Best Picture, based on bookmaker odds and his own opinions! (All the odds are as of February 19th, 2024)

Front Runner

OPPENHEIMER

We think that OPPENHEIMER is the front-runner. I mean it’s Christopher Nolan. And all the buzz and predictions out there shout Oppenheimer for the Best Picture. We do the same, and bookmakers think the same. The odds for their favorite to win the award are 1.062. 

It is Nolan’s first film since departing from his long-time partner, WarnerBros, with whom he worked for more than two decades. With his new home of Universal Studios, the film is a biopic of Robert Oppenheimer, the theoretical physicist who developed the world’s first atomic bomb. The film dominated this year’s nominees for the Academy Awards and listed itself in thirteen categories, including Best Pictures, cinematography, and Adapted Screenplay. 

Runners-Up

We have picked three Runners-Up. They all are as stunning films as OPPENHEIMER, and it is not surprising at all was any of these films snatched the Best Picture. As a matter of fact, I would even like them to win the award.

POOR THINGS

The satire film was directed by a Greek auteur Yorgos Lanthimos. It depicts the relationship between Bella Baxter, an underdeveloped, childlike young woman, a talented surgeon, Godwin Baxter who studies Bella’s intellectual development, and Max McCandless who develops his feelings for Bella while assisting Godwin in his research. Max becomes engaged to Bella but is interfered with by a lawyer, Duncan Wedderburn who convinces Bella to join him for a grand journey.

The Sci-fi satiric dark comedy was nominated for 11 awards at the Academy Awards in total, including Best Director, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Adapted Screenplay, which bookmaker’s odds of 15.00. 

BARBIE

Greta Gerwig teamed up with Margot Robbie on this film. Barbie is a feminist satire film that follows the journey of a stereotypical Barbie who plays a central role in a matriarchal Barbieland and a dismissed male doll, Ken. 

The film was record-breaking, and as of early January 2024, it has grossed $1.4 billion globally, becoming the highest-grossing live-action comedy film of all time. In terms of the award circuit, the film has won Critics’ Choice Movie Awards for Best Original Screenplay and was nominated in a total of eight categories for Academy Awards including Best Supporting Actor & Actress, as well as Best Adapted Screenplay. Bookmaker’s odds are 41.00

THE HOLDOVERS

A dramedy, THE HOLDOVERS, is directed by Alexander Payne and written by David Hemingson. Set in a New England boarding school in the 1970s, the film depicts an arc of the relationship between the students, who had nowhere to go during the Christmas holidays and are forced to stay in the dormitory, and an unpopular teacher, who has to take care of the students, staying on campus.

The film had its world premiere at a festival season opener, the 50th Telluride Film Festival, and was a runner-up for the People’s Choice Award. For the Academy Awards, it is nominated for four other categories including Best Original Screenplay. Bookmaker’s odds are 17.00 but also this could be one of the strong contenders that give us a surprise. 

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON is an epic western by Martin Scorsese based on a book by David Gran. The film marks the sixth collaboration between Scorsese and Leonardo DiCaprio, and the tenth between Scorsese and Robert De Niro. 

Although the bookmaker odds are 67.00, I personally see this can also be another contender that delivers him his first-ever Best Picture. So far the film won the Best Film at the National Board of Review and has been nominated for ten categories for Academy Awards including Best Director, Best Actress in a Leading Role as well as Supporting Actor. 

Oscar Predictions

Tier Three and the Rest

It is of course still possible for these films to win the Best Picture category. They are nonetheless nominated. And yet, there are clear differences in terms of buzz and critical reception, as well as bookmakers’ odds. While the front-runner to the runners-up is given odds of up to 20.00, the rest of the films are considered much less likely to win. 

THE ZONE OF INTEREST

A German, Polish, Yiddish language film by A24, loosely based on the novel of the same title by Martin Amis. It depicts a German Nazi commandant who intends to build a dream life with his wife in a new home right next to Auschwitz. 

The drama premiered at the 76th Cannes Film Festival where the film received Grand Prix and FIPRESCI Prize. For this year’s Oscars, it is nominated for four different categories including Best Director and International Feature, in addition to the Best Picture. The bookmaker’s odds are 29.00.

ANATOMY OF A FALL

This French legal thriller illustrates a fight of a woman for her innocence over the death of her husband who was found dead on an isolated snow mountain in the French Alps. It premiered at the 76th Cannes Film Festival on 21 May 2023, where it won the Palme d’Or. The bookmaker’s odds are 34.00.

AMERICAN FICTION

A frustrated African American novelist is inspired by a best-selling writer who panders to black stereotypes, and takes on a venture of writing a work that satisfies the audiences that want more black stereotypes, which makes him successful, though, but also leads him to realize an enormous disconnection between his true self and the image as a “black author” created by those around him. A work that makes you question whether what you are seeing in a book is based on a truth or not. The bookmaker’s odds are 67.00.

MAESTRO

Leonard Bernstein’s biopic, MAESTRO shows the life of the great music talent who not only composed numbers of musical masterpieces but also was one of the most beloved conductors of the 20th century. The film was directed and starred by Bradly Cooper. Bookmakers give the film the odds of 101.00.

PAST LIVES

THE PAST LIVES is a semi-autobiographical film inspired by the director’s life event. This makes the second Best Picture nomination for the Oscar darling, A24 along with THE ZONE OF INTEREST. The film premiered at the Sundance Film Festival. For the 96th Oscars, it was nominated for Best Original Screenplay along with Best Picture. Bookmakers give the film the odds of 67.00.

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